What the experts don't know

Recently I attended the “Michigan Economic Forum” -- organized, to their credit, by University of Michigan undergraduate students in economics. A panel of invited economists and others presented data on the status of American’s economy, the auto industry, and Michigan’s business climate. While professing the obvious: “Michigan’s losing manufacturing jobs” and “the housing market is a bust”, none provided a vision of what Michigan could or should become. I came away with the sinking feeling that these so-called experts knew little about Michigan and contribute nothing useful to the dialog about Michigan’s economic future.

True, the popular “more high-tech” and “more college graduates” mantras were trotted out, but no vision accompanied these tropes. This advice did nothing to address Michigan’s broad employment decline in the manufacturing sector. If followed, the recommendations would serve only to increase the yawning gap between Michigan’s high-tech haves and the underemployed have-nots.

Recent experience with Pfizer and other hi-tech companies fleeing the state suggests that “more hi-tech” is not the solution. For a hundred years or more, Michigan has been exporting its creativity and innovations to the world – manufacturing technologies, pharmaceutical and chemical inventions, advanced sensors, and successful business models – leaving little behind. Sadly, there’s no Michigan-created technology that others can’t take away. For permanence, we need home-grown activities embedded in the very fabric of our geography -- rooted in our soil if you will. Is there such a thing?

Yes, Michigan’s geography is unique, highly attractive, marketable, and unmovable! The diversity of its landscapes, the richness of its history, and the increasing favorableness of its climate, make Michigan an attractive focus as a growing recreation and retirement destination.

Michigan’s coastlines are phenomenal; an outstanding attraction to this nation’s retiring 76 million Baby Boomers. Incorporating almost 40% of the voting age population, Baby Boomers have portable pensions and are likely to choose Michigan for its quality of life and quality of health care services. With a little effort, Michigan could attract retirees with wealth and experience, who in turn, would end up creating hundred of thousands of new service jobs in Michigan. This may be the answer that the experts have missed.

Michigan's next big thing

With the maturing of the auto industry, many of us are asking: What’s Michigan’s next big thing? What new wave of economic activity might propel our State forward? Digital or nanotechnologies? Life sciences or pharmaceuticals? Creative new urbanism?

It’s impossible to predict a certain future, but that’s not to say that we shouldn’t look to invest in those sectors that promise to employ as many of our citizens as possible – or at least that’s what I tell my students at Eastern Michigan University. Being an instructor of geography, I like to remind my students of just how much of Michigan’s prosperity has been due to its rich natural resources, to its location at the heart of the Great Lakes, and how much geography will continue to shape their lives.

In guessing about Michigan’s “next big thing”, we might factor in an environmental event we’re told is fast approaching if not already here: global climate change with rising temperatures. Many believe that such a trend is all but inevitable and that within several decades, much of Michigan could have a climate more like that of central Ohio. If so, climate change will have a profound effect on America’s and Michigan’s future. Surprisingly, the purported negative effects of climate change, e.g. disastrous droughts and floods, increasing hurricanes and sea level rise will little influence Michigan and may actually have some benefits (in a relative sense).

Michigan’s costliest hazards are related to its cold weather: highway accidents and transportation disruptions; flu, falls, and ill health; power outages and frozen pipes. Indeed, we anticipate cold winters with bigger furnaces, extra insulation, more energy supplies, and greater home-owners insurance. Significant costs are incurred simply in annually shutting down and restarting Michigan’s outdoor construction season. This makes Michigan a more expensive place to live than more southerly climes.

A warmer climate, especially one with less extreme winters, could bring Michigan its “next big thing”. Michigan would be less expensive and more attractive for recreation and retirement. Many of us know firsthand of the richness of our natural landscapes: its forests and scenic rivers, coastal dunes and inland lakes, and the great range of warm weather-related activities. While other benefits, such as longer crop growing and shipping seasons, would surely bolster our State’s economy, Michigan’s next big thing may be its growing attraction to affluent vacationers and retirees from all over the country.

Think about the hazards of a bone-dry Arizona, a flammable and earthquake prone California, or flood and hurricane-beset Florida. Michigan may emerge as an alternative to these. True, other Great Lakes states would also benefit, but none is so well positioned as Michigan to provide an interesting and stable environment to a mobile, healthy, and well-healed America population.

It won’t happen over night, but investments made in supporting our own senior citizens and in attracting Baby Boomers from across the nation to our shores (we have more coastline than the entire Atlantic Seaboard) will pay rich dividends. New recreational and cultural facilities, safe multiunit housing in walkable communities, accessible health care, local public transport, and easy communication will attract people to our State Most of all, we must fight tooth and nail to protect the quantity and quality of our most important asset, our 40 thousand square miles of Great Lakes water (41% of the State).

In-turn new, environmentally-friendly jobs and attractive communities would grow and attract young and creative people. As our smokestack industries decline, education, recreation, health care, and housing focused on seniors could be Michigan’s “next big thing”. As an old guy, I’m hoping so.