A more convenient turth

By now you all know that our former Vice President, Al Gore, has received the Nobel Peace Prize for raising public awareness of the dangers posed by increasing greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and global warming. Private citizen Gore is best known for his illustrated lecture, turned into a movie, called “An Inconvenient Truth” --- although an earlier book called: “A World in Balance” has also received popular attention.

Environmentalists and most scientists have rallied around Mr. Gore’s message to persuade Americans to amend their fossil fuel burning ways – fossil fuels being our major source energy and also the principle source of carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere. Interestingly, this has turned out to be a difficult task. While many of us express concerns about the environment, few of us, in fact, are ready to make radical changes in our lifestyles. Various polls have shown that in terms of public concerns and private priorities, “saving the planet” is well down on our to-do lists.

Today, coal, oil, and natural gas provide some 86% of our energy needs and are the basis for our industrial economy. Most scientists are convinced that some climate change is already inevitable but will become increasingly extreme, the longer we wait to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions.

I sense that, while acknowledging the possibility of sea level rise, increasing hurricanes, droughts, summer heat waves, and violent weather, few of us here in Michigan, are rushing to mothball our SUVs or turn our thermostats down by 10 degrees. Indeed, as long as abundant energy is available at the gas pump or by throwing a switch, we’re just not going to abstain from those things we’ve always done – even at somewhat higher prices.

Bottom line: former VP Gore and the environmentalists have failed! Even after a dozen years with all the scientific evidence on their side, we’re not changing their energy consuming ways! Economist’s project American energy consumption will continue to grow by 2% annually for the foreseeable future—even as our population grows at less than half this rate. What‘s wrong here?

It seems to me, it has to do with how the message is being delivered rather than with its validity. The message is one of gloom and doom… one that offers little hope for a good outcome…for a future to look forward to.

If you believe the environmentalists, climate change is unmitigated disaster with no upside; no positive elements, no ray of hope; nothing good can come of it. These prophets have decided to frighten us into changing our ways: massive coastal inundations, crop-destroying droughts, migrations of populations, and irreparable losses to the earth’s biogenetic heritage. The lone, bewildered Polar Bear standing on a rapidly melting iceberg is the poster child for this cause.

Why, in spite of the scientific consensus, are so few of us willing to change – including, I might add, most of scientists and policymakers themselves? It’s because climate change is occurring slowly (in terms of people’s lives) and instinctively we realize “it’s an ill wind that blows no good”. While all change, including climate change, involves costs, there are benefits – especially for us living in places with long, cold winters. Instinctive, we know we’re being given only part of the story. So here, as Paul Harvey used to say, “is the rest of the story”.

Climates have always been changing: mostly for the better, but sometimes for the worse. Consider that 12 thousand years ago, where we’re sitting today was covered by a mile of ice and later by tundra and boreal forests. You’ll appreciate how much our climate has changed in the blink of a geological eye.

That’s not to say the changes we’re seeing today aren’t important or without consequence, but it is to say that so far the changes in Michigan have not been bad. True, lake levels are down a bit, making shipping less profitable, but the fact that 8 of the last 10 years have been the warmest on record, seems not to have inconvenienced us greatly. Indeed, longer growing seasons are promoting record harvests and extending lake shipping and constructions seasons. There’s been welcome reductions in demands for heating fuels and snow plowing.

I suspect that warmer weather makes Michigan more attractive for summer recreation and fewer “snowbirds” retreat to Florida in the winter. While naysayers may complain that longer outdoor recreation seasons result in more environmental stresses, I’m inclined to think that shorter winters lead to fewer flues, falls, heart attacks, power outages, and auto accidents.

People of my vintage, appreciate longer springs, summers, and falls, and shorter winters. Last year saw the retirement of the 1^st Baby Boomer – the start of a wave of 78 million people with mobile pensions, some of whom will make Michigan a destination for travel and retirement. With ample fresh water, beautiful coastlines (longer than the entire Eastern Seaboard), and shorter winters, Michigan should prosper.

So, I greet Mr. Gore's peace prize with a certain ambivalence. Mind you, I have no quarrel with the facts. Global warming is a reality, but it would be wise if environmentalists would paint a more balanced picture. They would be more credible by mentioning those positive things that are inevitable that allow us to be a bit optimistic in spite of the gloom. Clearly we need to make the changes to reduce the likelihood of extreme events but here in Michigan, let’s also consider a more convenient truth.